Connecticut Real Estate and Economic Growth 2020
Dear Pete Gioia, Chief Economist of PGEcon LLC,
I have considered then, responded to your letter, quoting some of your comments as basis for my opinion. As a real esate professional since 1996 I have developed interest in the House Price Index for my Metro New Haven Milford market, hyper local, and statewide economic trends.
I continue to see our housing stock as affordable, with the potential to serve owner occupant residents with a variety of needs and financial resources, in the majority of our communities. Certain towns and cities have inherent financial obstacles that make access to housing more challenging, while these same communities have the economic resources to invest in their neighbors.
To turn much of our prison population into productive workers upon reentry we need to increase jobs which requires the reduction of automation, and investment by business owners in their community.
I see continued steady and improving performance in Connecticut Real Estate values due to our deferred appreciation that reflects stability since 2012. West Coast Metros are depreciating according to recent data I have presented in my 3Q2019 New Haven Metro Market Report
Proximity to Metro NYC and climate continues to deliver location, location and location for Connecticut, supported by our superior quality of life, healthcare, 196 independent communities. The availability of commercial, residential and investment real estate for purchase and sale will be attractive in 2020 and beyond.
The only way to get customers to continue to buy our manufactured products and services is to be more competitive, secure, transparent and innovative, delivering better quality with better people who want a better quality of life in New England.
I fully agree with you that “Connecticut has great economic potential but is falling short on benefiting from this potential. We have great manufacturing, especially in aerospace and defense, that will help us for at least the next generation. We have a solid, if struggling financial-services sector. Connecticut business confidence is mixed. There’s a lot of confidence in the U.S. economy and in own-company performance.” I wonder if “confidence in the Connecticut economy is weak” when the most recent $800B bond sale was aggressively bid which resulted in better than expected rates.
I agree that “for Connecticut in 2020, the most likely scenario is slow growth, barely avoiding a state-specific recession” yet the rest of the country will not necessarily grow as evidenced in real stated estate values
It’s true that “Job growth under 10,000 net new workers, slow housing growth and stagnant prices and continued net out migration,” yet the outbound number decreased in 2018, taking Connecticut out of the top ten outbound states. “Businesses will see profits while doing all they can to cut prices and increase automation and technology,” but will those profits be invested in the statewide need for job development or poached by the investors who get a better return on a robot than a family? I am encouraged that you “see more Connecticut companies developing new products or services” but wonder why you think they will be “making these products or services increasingly out of state” when there is a need for jobs and economic development here? Are our resident business owners more invested in themselves than their community? How do we address that functional disconnect?
We may be “hampered by a lack of qualified workers” so does that not create an opportunity for continuing education? I agree “we need a major effort building upon successful models to massively grow skilled manufacturing workers and better educate inner-city youth” well as adults in all communities that seek employment that will provide a living wage.
In closing, I thank Mr Gioia for his experience and insight, which I hope we can discuss in the future, together, and with other people how have a #CTClear2020Vison.
Sincerely,
David Carr MA, PSCS.
Real Estate Consultant
Licensed in CT since 1996
